NE.Wx Snowfall Forecast Contest

Complete Results @ http://www.newx-forecasts.com/

Follow the left-panel link from '23^nd Annual Snow Storm Contest > Verified Forecasts > ‘03-FEB-22’ to see the complete forecasters’ verification table by station

In the table ...

Yellow cells indicate the best score in category.

Forecast STP cells: yellow if within +/- 5% of observed STP.

Blue (Red) cells indicate the 25% (75%) percentile.

SUMSQ: sum of square errors (measure of forecast accuracy accounting for magnitude and distribution of snowfall)

STP: storm total precipitation

TAE: total absolute error
AAE: average absolute error

Final Standings - all Forecasters

Station by Station Comparison of Top 4 Forecasts and Observed Storm-total Snowfall (STP)

Perfect Forecasts (Batting Average - Forecast Stations with No Error)

Best Station Forecasts (Batting Average - Forecast Stations with Lowest Absolute Error)

Best Station Forecast Busts (Batting Average - Forecast Stations with Highest Absolute Error)

Consensus forecast best @

MAX forecast best @ CAR … BGR … BTV

MAX forecast less than observed @ CAR … BTV

MIN forecasts best @ PWM … CON … ORH … BDL … ALB … BGM

MIN forecasts more than observed @ PWM … CON … BDL

Strong correlation (R = 0.982) between SUMSQ and TAE Z-scores

A dashed Forecast trend line above (below) solid red Observed snowfall line ==> over (under) forecast

R² value indicates how well the forecast captured the observed snowfall’s variability … i.e., R² = 0.874 ==> the forecast captured ~87% of the observed snowfall’s variability.

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Verification of storm-total snowfalls for THU … 03-FEB-22 through SAT … 05-FEB-22 from CDUS41 (CLI) ... CXUS51 (CF6) ... METARs ... and PNS bulletins. Excellent coverage and reporting.

HYA

STP estimated from NOHRSC reports using inverse distance weighting of vicinity reports.

Liquid equivalents recovered from METARS for several stations with missing climate bulletins data.

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Snow-to-liquid ratio (SLR) not reported for some stations with measurable snowfall b/c significant liquid and / or freezing precipitation also occurred during the verification period.